Nuclear weapons: Kim is smarter than Trump

Trump, after his meeting with Kim, said the nuclear threat “will be gone.” He tweeted: “There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea.” But the lack of specific details in the agreement were met with disappointment by ànalysts. Robert Kelly, professor of political science at Pusan National University, says… the text is “thinner than most sceptics antìcipated ”.

Trump said… the US would stop joint military games with South Korea.  According to Trump, North Korea will be dismantling the missile facility. But this claim could not be confirmed. I repeat… there aren’t details about that in the signed documents.

In fact, U.S. intelligence agencies suspect that North Korea has increased its production of fuel for nuclear weapons at multiple secret sites. Thay also improved the infrastructure at the plutonium-production reactor. The Washington Post reports, Kim Jong Un is considering ways to hide the weapons. The Wall Street Journal reported that North Korea is expanding a facility to build solid-fuel ballistic missiles.

No one really knows what commitments were made.  In fact, it’s difficult to understand what Kim and Trump agreed. We know only the joint statement in which North Korea to work for complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The optimism generated by President Trump’s meeting with North Korean leader is giving way to reality. In fact it is just how difficult it will be to persuade North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons . As I said…North Korea doesn’t intend to surrender its nuclear armament. Instead it is considering ways to conceal the number of weapons and the sites of production. All this fits a historical and ripetitive pattern that already happened in the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations. However all failed. In fact Trump sead on Fox News that “it’s possible” that a deal won’t work out.

 

Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State, traveled to North Korea to press the Pyongyang regime about commitments gaven at the summit in Singapore. However North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, has been too busy visiting a potato farm. Pompeo only met with Kim Yong Chol, a North Korean general. Even if the two sides did agree on denuclearization, it is clear they don’t share the meaning of the term. The U.S. wants North Korea to stop making nuclear weapons and get rid of the nuclear weapons it already has. But North Korea is highly unlikely that it will give up those weapons, of course….for them those weapons are a security guarantee.

In fact, in recent years, senior North Korean officials have told exactly what denuclearization means. For them denuclearization means the èlimination of the “threat”, so the elimination of the U.S.-South Korea alliance, the elimination of the U.S. troops on the Korean Peninsula, and the elimination of the U.S. nuclear umbrella that defends South Korea and Jàpàn. In summary the North Korea would “consider” denuclearization only in 10-20 years time  and only if North Korea feels “secure.”

Some days ago president Trump canceled Pompeo’s new visit, citing ìnsufficient progress in the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. But to understand the geopolitic issues we must consider the great influence, (political and economic) of China on North Korea. Trump trade war with China has caused anger in China. He makes it unlikely that the China government could be persuaded to cooperate. The United States also wants to exert “maximum pressure” on North Korea’s economy. This is not correct. Trump is trying to punish China on trade. At the same time, he wants China’s help about North Korean negotiation. He lacks a strategy. We don’t forget it is possible that China can produce an agreement with North Korea in September, on the occasion of the Chinese leader’s visit to Pyongyang. It is possible that China will get a boost in the diplomacy game by taking the role, the U.S. failed to play.

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